A Noob Predicts the World Cup

The World Cup is finally here! Fans around the globe are getting ready for a month of unforgettable moments, dramatic upsets, and incredible goals. Now, I'll be honest—I’m not a soccer expert. In fact, you could call me a noob when it comes to predicting the World Cup. I may have interned with the Carolina Ascent and Bethesda SC (btw we play Saturday night- show up to the Maryland SoccerPlex and cheer us on!), but that doesn’t help me with World Cup prep. But why would I let something like that stop me from taking a shot at forecasting how the tournament will unfold?

Group A

Group A features Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, and Czechia. Mexico has a big advantage because they will be playing every game at home as one of the co-hosts. That atmosphere should help Mexico win this group, as long as they can forget some of their recent World Cup disappointments.

As for the rest of the group, I can’t name a single player on any of these teams. But I remember South Korea made it out of the group stage at the last World Cup, so I’m going to guess they can do it again this year. South Africa has the coolest nickname in the group—Bafana Bafana—so they take third place in my completely scientific rankings. Unfortunately for Czechia, that leaves them finishing at the bottom.

Group B

Group B features Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar, and Switzerland. While Canada has home-field advantage as one of the tournament's co-hosts, it isn't quite the same as Mexico's situation.

Switzerland will win the group because I trust them more then the others.

Qatar didn't earn a single point at the last World Cup despite being the host nation (becoming the first host nation to do so). This World Cup will be more of the same because, frankly, they just aren't at the same level as the other teams in the group.

That leaves Canada and Bosnia and Herzegovina battling for second place. I'm giving the edge to Canada because of the home support and because it would make for a fun story.

Group C

Group C features Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, and Scotland. Brazil is once again one of the favorites to win the World Cup, as they seem to be every four years. The problem is that being the favorite means nothing unless you actually win the trophy.

That said, I studied abroad in Brazil, and the football culture there is unbelievable. Every street, beach, and neighborhood seems to revolve around the sport. Also, I bought so many soccer jerseys there so they have to win so I can wear them. So because of that—and that alone—I'm picking Brazil to win the group.

Morocco made a surprise run to the semifinals in 2022, so they should have no trouble finishing second. Scotland finally being back on the big stage is a great story, but I don't think they'll have enough to get through. Haiti will be happy just to be here and should gain some valuable experience, but they'll finish at the bottom of the group.

Group D

Group D features Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye and The United States of America. 

The United States is winning this group. How do I know? I don't. But this is “A Noob Predicts the World Cup”, not “A Soccer Expert Carefully Analyzes the World Cup.” The U.S. has Captain America (Christian Pulisic), and home-field advantage-ish. That's enough evidence for me.

Second place is where it gets tough. Australia always seems to show up at World Cups and make life miserable for better teams. Türkiye feels like one of those countries that is either amazing or loses to a team I've never heard of. Since I have absolutely no idea which version will show up, I'm putting Türkiye in second because their name has the cool dots over the "u."

Paraguay finishes last, which probably means they will now win the group and make me look stupid.

Group E

Group E features Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Germany and Curaçao 

For starters, because Ecuador is the only country in this group that begins with an "E," they automatically win the group. If that isn't a foolproof prediction method, I don't know what is. And before you ask, Bosnia and Herzegovina don’t count because that is two names not one. 

Germany finishes second. Normally, putting Germany second would be a bold take, but this is what happens when you get grouped with a country whose name starts with the same letter as the group. The rules are the rules.

Curaçao takes third. I don't know much about their national team, but I think their flag is cool, and that's worth something in my rankings.

That leaves Ivory Coast in last. Nothing personal against Ivory Coast—someone has to finish fourth, and unfortunately they lost the completely random tiebreaker happening inside my brain.

Group F

Group F features The Netherlands, Japan, Sweden and Tunisia.

The Netherlands are winning this group because every time I watch a World Cup, they seem to be good. That's the entire analysis. They wear orange, have cool fans, and are usually still around when the tournament gets serious.

Japan finishes second because they always seem to pull off at least one result that makes everyone go, "Wait, Japan beat who?" I have learned my lesson and will not underestimate them.

Sweden takes third. I don't really have a reason for this one. Every prediction article needs at least one team that gets picked because "it feels right," and Sweden is that team for me.

Tunisia finishes last. I have nothing against Tunisia. In fact, this prediction is so uninformed that Tunisia will probably use it as motivation and make the Round of 16.

Group G 

Group G features Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand.

When I went to Belgium last summer, I saw a naked bike ride which is apparently a thing. Do I know why, no, but now like me whoever is reading this can’t get that image out of their head. So because of that Belgium loses some critical mojo and finishes second in the group.

New Zealand finishes first because they are New Zealand. The other teams are using old strategies. New Zealand clearly has new strategies. That's just basic logic.

Egypt takes third because I know who Mohamed Salah is, but apparently knowing one player isn't enough to move them any higher in my rankings.

Iran finishes last for no real reason. Maybe it’s just because I know none of their players.

Group H

Group H features Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay

Spain is winning this group because every soccer video game I've ever played has told me Spain is good. Could I name their entire starting lineup? Absolutely not. But if FIFA taught me anything growing up, it's that picking Spain is usually a safe bet.

Second place goes to Uruguay. Every time I hear about Uruguay at a World Cup, they're either winning a game they shouldn't or one of their players is doing something completely insane. 

Cape Verde finishes in third. Why? I don’t know, their name is cool. I literally know nothing about them.

Saudi Arabia finishes fourth. This is probably a terrible prediction because the last time I doubted Saudi Arabia at a World Cup, they went out and beat Argentina. Unfortunately, I have learned absolutely nothing from that experience.

Group I

Group I features France, Iraq, Senegal, and Norway.

Iraq should win the group because their name starts with an "I," which is the same letter as the group. As we learned with Ecuador in Group E, this is usually a foolproof strategy. However, I'm worried that forcing the strategy twice might jinx it, so I'm abandoning my own system.

Because of that, France wins the group. Sometimes you just have to put aside advanced analytics and pick one of the best teams in the world.

Iraq still finishes second because I don't want to completely disrespect the letter-matching strategy. If they get knocked out, I'll at least know I trusted the science.

Senegal takes third. They're probably good enough to make me regret this prediction, but that's a problem for future me.

Norway finishes fourth simply because their country's name begins with a NO which usually is a bad sign (for predictions not anything else).

Group J

Group J features Argentina, Algeria, Austria and Jordan. 

Argentina wins the group because Inter Miami legend Lionel Messi plays for them. I know some people will tell me he accomplished a few things before arriving in Miami, but let's focus on what really matters here.

Second place goes to Algeria. Why? Because every World Cup needs one team that comes out of nowhere and ruins everyone's bracket. Algeria feels like the kind of team that would do that and then immediately disappear before I have to explain the prediction.

Austria finishes third because every time I hear "Austria," my brain immediately thinks of kangaroos before remembering that's Australia. Any country that can confuse me that easily was never going to make the knockout stage in my rankings.

Jordan finishes fourth. The name rule can’t apply here because the matrix gets confused when it doesn’t know if something is a country or a person. Also Michael Jordan retired years ago and I don't think he's walking through that door to save them. 

Group K

Group K features Portugal, DR Congo,Uzbekistan and Colombia.

Portugal wins the group because Cristiano Ronaldo has convinced me that he will somehow still be playing professional soccer when he is 57 years old. Until I see proof otherwise, I will continue assuming Portugal is good.

Second place goes to Colombia because every World Cup needs a team that I randomly decide is advancing with almost no evidence. Congratulations, Colombia, you are this year's lucky winner.

Uzbekistan finishes third mostly because "Uzbekistan" is one of the most fun countries to say out loud, which earns them bonus points in my rankings.

DR Congo finishes fourth. Not because they're a bad team, but because I accidentally forgot they were in the group while writing this paragraph. That's usually not a great sign for a World Cup prediction.

Group L

Group L features England, Croatia, Ghana and Panama.

England wins the group because of that one song. You know the one. Every tournament, every pub, every highlight video—it shows up, and suddenly England are “coming home” again. At this point, the song has more tournament experience than I do (mostly because my experience in the World Cup is nonexistent so if the song is played once it wins).

Croatia finishes second because they are permanently assigned the role of “tournament team that refuses to leave quietly.” I don’t know how they keep doing it, but I’m not going to question it anymore.

Ghana finishes third because they beat the US too many times and I’m bitter.

Panama finishes fourth. Mostly because someone has to, and my prediction method at this point is just vibes and whatever country name I remember last.

So those are my predictions. I hope I didn’t offend you with them. With that being said this tournament is going to be fun. This is the sporting event closest to March Madness. Games will be on every day and in two weeks, we can all look back and realize that I should maybe do research before I make any more predictions.