Honest Thoughts on the 2022-23 Caps

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Hockey is back! The Washington Capitals are beginning another season. This time, instead of making a prediction, I decided to spend two weeks gathering research to give you three factors for the Capitals to have a successful season, as well as three possible outcomes for the season. I’d like to thank the folks at Hockey Reference (https://www.hockey-reference.com/) for having an excellent site for hockey stats.

The three factors that will determine the fate of the Capitals season are:

1. Consistency in net

The Caps had a lot of issues with their goaltending in 2021-22. Ilya Samsonov had a GAA (goals against average) of 3.02 and a SV%(save percentage) of .896, while Vitek Vanecek had a GAA of 2.67 and a SV% of .908. Anyone who doesn't watch or look at millions of page stats or games doesn't know those numbers aren't the best, and what made it worse is that fans never knew what to expect. Samsonov and Vanecek would have moments where they looked like franchise goalies, but two games later they looked like they belonged in the AHL. After a first-round exit to the Florida Panthers last season, the Caps traded Vanecek to the Devils for a second and a third-round pick and decided to not qualify Samsonov and let him become an unrestricted free agent. For the Caps season to have any hope, they will need to find consistency from the new goalie, fresh off his Stanley Cup winning performance in Colorado – Darcy Kuemper. More on him below.

1. New additions stepping up

The Caps have a lot of new faces in the locker room this season. Whenever you bring in new parts, you hope that they will fit in nicely with the remaining core of the roster. While this isn't always the case, it needs to happen for the Caps to be successful, especially since they won't have Nick Backstrom, Tom Wilson, and Carl Hagelin for months (in Backstrom and Hagelin’s case, maybe the whole season). Let's see what each new part must do:

Darcy Kuemper: Kuemper has a lot resting on his shoulder pads this year. The Caps got rid of their two young goalies to clear the salary cap space needed to get him, and if things go sour, those moves will be looked at very differently. But Kuemper has been a really good and consistent goalie throughout his career. There was a reason the Avalanche gave up a first-round pick for him before last season, and I don't think they have any regrets. If the Caps get regular season Kuemper then they'll be fine. If they get the Kuemper, who was injured and inconsistent from the 2022 postseason, they are in trouble.

Charlie Lindgren: The Capitals signed Lindgren in free agency to back up Kuemper. Lindgren has just 29 games of NHL experience in his career. In those games, his goals against average is 2.74 and his save percentage is .913%. Last season, he only started four games but played in five. He went 5-0-0 with a 1.22 goals against average and a save percentage of .958%. Hopefully it wasn't a fluke season and he plays well for the Caps.

Dylan Strome: This is the signing that made the most noise. Strome was only available after Chicago let him leave in the offseason and it was shocking that he was signed to just a one-year, $3.5 million deal. Like the Caps did with Samsonov, this seems like horrible asset management by Chicago. Right now he will be the second-line center. If all goes well, expect him to get paid in the offseason. He’s a restricted free agent so if Washington wants him, he’ll be back.

Connor Brown: The former sixth-round pick will have to replace Tom Wilson in the short term and that is no easy task. The Caps are going to rely on him to make an impact at both ends of the ice. He should be a solid middle-six forward in head coach Peter Laviolette’s system. Brown has only broken 40 points once before in his NHL career. He’ll be a free agent this offseason so has extra incentive to step up his play.

Eric Gustafson: Here is the low-risk, high-reward deal, as well as the replacement for Justin Schultz. You’ll likely see him on the third pair with Trevor van Riemsdyk. He just needs to be a consistent defender who can handle the puck in the offensive zone.

1. Power plays/penalty kill

The Caps are usually known for having one of the most potent and effective power plays in the NHL. Last season it wasn't the case. The power play percentage was only 18.75% which was lowest it's been in any season I've seen. If you watched their power play it was so predictable! Get the puck to John Carlson at the point, set up T.J. Oshie in between the faceoff dots, and have Alex Ovechkin in his office so you can pass to him and hope his shots go past the goalie. It's the same thing over and over again. They need to fix that! To have a successful season the power play can't just be fed to Ovechkin everytime and hope he scores.

The penalty kill is different. It was still 80.44% effective, but it has had one major flaw. Whenever it had the chance to score short handed, whoever had the puck missed badly. There is a reason teams let Carl Hagelin shoot on breakaways – he can't finish. For the season to be a success, the Caps must make their chances count when it comes to the opportunities on the penalty kill.

Three possible outcomes

This is pretty much a prediction but I'm splitting it into three categories which are the best outcome, the realistic outcome, and the Sharks outcome. Don't worry, I'll explain everything.

Best outcome

If everything above happens, the best outcome is another playoff berth. But it won't end in a Cup win. I think this team has the talent to win another Cup, but with the young yet experienced Rangers, a Hurricanes team that all the analytics gurus love, a reloaded Blue Jackets squad, the ghost of Pittsburgh's past and then Tampa potentially waiting in the conference finals, it would be a hard road to get through and that's not even including the Western Conference. The best outcome is getting through the East side of the playoffs and then getting killed by the Avalanche, Oilers, or other Western Conference team.

Realistic outcome

Let's be honest, the realistic outcome of this team is a seventh or eighth seed and an early playoff exit. The Caps are one of the oldest teams in the league. Unless they unlock the fountain of youth for every player, the most likely scenario is looking like the Red Wings at the end of their dynasty. Those teams in the early 2010s were just trying to get to the playoffs and weren't real contenders; they were just on the borderline of playoff teams looking to get hot at the right time. Also, watch what happens at the trade deadline, given the sheer number of pending free agents on the roster. The team only has two defensemen on the roster for next year, and that counts restricted free agent Martin Fehervary. They will probably try to sign Dmitry Orlov and Nick Jensen, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them ink one and trade the other.

Sharks outcome

Let me explain this a little more: After making the 2019 Western Conference Finals, the 2020 San Jose Sharks were looking to finally win a Cup! Unfortunately, instead they fell off hard. The average age of their entire team was 29 years old. They had given a lot of money to Erik Karlsson ($11.5 million per year), Brett Burns ($8 million) and a whole lot of other veterans, but due to their age they declined much faster than many expected. When the Caps fall off this is what it may look like. Their average age is 30.7 years old so they are older than the Sharks were when the bad times started in San Jose.

How could that happen here? Consider this scenario: Ovechkin still is his usual self but everyone else around him looks old and unable to keep up with a faster league. Management then refuses to realize the window is shut and trades more valuable assets to try and keep the window open. But that will only patch things up for a short time at best.

It may not happen this year, but the Sharks outcome likely will happen at some point with this team. It’s also how the Kings and Blackhawks (without the scandals) collapsed in recent years. And, not for nothing, this will also be how the Penguins fall off when their time comes. At some point, veteran teams run out of time for that last Cup run, and it often happens suddenly.

I hope this doesn't happen this season to the Caps, but I don't know.

That's this week's article! See you next time!.